Blogs > City Editor's Blog

By Jeremy Schiffres, Daily and Sunday Freeman, Kingston, N.Y.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Poll imposition

When debating politics with a friend of mine who is — shall we say? — across the aisle from me, I often cite major polls in trying to make a point.

But this morning, my faith in polls is more or less shot.

A couple of days before New York's Republican gubernatorial primary, the Siena College Poll, long respected as an accurate gauge of statewide political sentiment, had former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio and Buffalo developer Carl Paladino in a virtual dead heat. (Lazio was ahead by 1 point in the poll, which is considered statistically insignificant.)

But with virtually all the votes in Tuesday's race now counted, Paladino is the winner by a whopping 24 points — 62 percent to 38 percent.

How could Siena have been so wrong? Missing the result by a few points, even 10, would be one thing. But Seina missed by 25 POINTS!

That being the case, I don't see much sense in paying attention to any major poll — Gallup, Harris, Pew, Quinnipiac, et. al.. — between now and Election Day.

You want to know how the Nov. 2 elections will play out? I'd suggest you wake up the morning of Nov. 3 and check the results.



Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home