Just about a year ago, in early September 2010, a hurricane named Earl was curving through the Caribbean and heading toward the East Coast of the United States.

Forecasters predicted — practically guaranteed! — that Earl would pound the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then follow the coastline northward, delivering a glancing blow to New York City (and us, here in the Hudson Valley) then score direct hits on Long Island and Cape Cod.

In reality, Earl took an unexpected northeastern turn, missed the Outer Banks, missed New York City, missed Long Island and missed Cape Cod.

Now, in late August 2011, we have Hurricane Irene, starting out along the same path as Earl and rendering the exact same forecasts.

I'm just sayin' ,,,