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By Jeremy Schiffres, Daily and Sunday Freeman, Kingston, N.Y.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Numbers game

This from a Reuters story today:

"It has become the new battle cry for Republicans: All the polls showing Mitt Romney trailing by big margins are just wrong because pollsters are interviewing too many Democrats."

Explain to me, then, why the latest Fox News poll has Obama up by 5 points.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Martin McPhillips said...

This link has a pretty good discussion of the problems facing the pollsters. The Fox poll, done by a combo of Democratic and Republican pollsters, samples (I think I heard today) Democrats at +3 over Republicans. Meanwhile, Rasmussen has done a poll that puts party identification at Republicans +3, the greatest advantage Rasmussen has ever gotten for Republicans (you'll see from this piece that Rasmussen got its party ID number by polling adults as opposed to registered or likely voters, though it doesn't use that advantage in its election samples, where it does, however, have the race even. Rasmussen had the closest numbers to the actual outcome in '08).

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328805/number-cruncher-polls-history-underestimating-gop

September 28, 2012 at 9:01 PM 

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