If you're getting caught up in all the hype about the GOP's Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, consider this: John McCain, the Republican Party's eventual presidential nominee in 2008, came in a distant fourth in the Iowa caucuses that year, with barely one-third of the vote total of winner Mike Huckabee.

Also finishing ahead of McCain in Iowa that day: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.

Are the Iowa caucuses important? Sure. But will they foretell a party's nominee for the fall election? Maybe, maybe not.

The process of picking a major-party candidate to run for president is long and drawn out, and with good reason. To suggest that one day of caucuses in a single state 10 months before Election Day is the be-all and end-all is to completely misunderstand the process.