Take a good look at New York's 22nd Congressional District in the map at right (click to enlarge). And then forget about it, because you can bet your bottom dollar that it won't be there come election time this fall.

With New York needing to eliminate two congressional districts this year, due to population shifts reflected in the 2010 Census, and with longtime Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey, who occupies the seat in the 22nd, announcing this week that he'll retire at year's end, getting rid of the district is a no-brainer.

My guess is it will chopped into three pieces and that each piece will be attached to an adjacent district.

I see it going down one of two ways:

1. The thin, L-shaped western arm of the district — the piece that includes Binghamton and Ithaca — gets absorbed into District 24, just above it; and the fat eastern part of the district — which includes Ulster and Sullivan counties and small parts of Orange in Dutchess — gets sliced horizontally, with the top half joining the 20th District and the bottom half joining the 19th.

2. The Binghamton-Ithaca part of the district still joins District 24; the top half of eastern 22 and the westernmost counties in District 20 are added to the 21st District, which includes Albany; and the bottom half of eastern 22, as in the scenario above, joins the 19th.

I could be wrong about the exact boundaries, but one thing is certain: New York's current 22nd Congressional District is a goner.